Election Day Prognostications

As some you may have noticed, I occasionally make comments about politics, politicians and policies. This has been especially true during this election. As election day is nearly upon us, I would like to make some predictions. See if you agree. Comment with your own predictions so we can compare them on November 9th.

1. Hillary will win. She will end up with 345 electoral college votes, plus or minus 5%. Why so high compared to the current polls? There are a couple of things at play that are hard to measure. First is the ground game. Clinton has a high number of people going door to door, driving people to voting locations, and working the phones. Some experts feel this is worth 2-3% more than the polls show. Trump has virtually no ground game. 

Second are the results from early voting. In many cases it shows an almost equal number of Democrats and Republicans have voted early. So most people assume that all people are voting for the Presidential candidate of their party. Not true, in my opinion. In this election there are more Republicans voting for Hillary than there are Democrats voting for Trump. Even if only 2% more of the Republicans vote for Hillary than there are Democrats voting for Trump, that converts to a 4% shift in the early voting results (2% taken from Trump and given to Hillary deflates his vote by 2 and adds 2 to her to give a total shift of 4%). Note that this unmeasured effect is only true for early voters where we don't know how they voted. On election day we will know how they voted. Since about 30% of eligible voters in early voting states have voted, the net effect in those states is about 1.2% (30% of voters times the 4% shift).

If you combined these two factors, you end up with a net gain to Clinton of 3-4%. This puts all of the battleground states out of reach for Trump and may even move a couple of Trump-leaning states to her too.

2. After the election, the Senate will be 51/49 in favor of the Democrats. Some of the math from above will work for the Democrats. 

3. Trump will not concede the election Tuesday or Wednesday. He will claim voting irregularities. On election day we will see some voter intimidation at the polls but not as much as some predict. It will come mostly from the Trump side as he has encouraged people to monitor the polls but has not put any guidelines in place to control those who may be too enthusiastic about their duties. 

4. Trump's failure to get elected will launch Trump's career in the anti-establishment alt-right movement which will crash and burn. Trump's brand, which he values at $5 billion dollars will take a big hit. The brand has been attached to Trump the winner. Now he will be Trump the loser no matter who he blames the loss on.

Disagree with my predictions? Offer your thoughts about what will happen on and after election day. Any logic you can use will be appreciated. 

Charlie Sharp

Dallas Shootings - Outliers

I am so proud of how my husband, addressed the tragic event that we are all still struggling with today.

As the daughter of a police officer, the events stir memories of my Dad rushing in to help during the riots in July of 1970 and my fear for his life. I was there, bused into Asbury park by Nj Bell. I was a college student working as a telephone Operator for the summer. Somehow I didn't fear for my own life. But I knew my Dad was in the thick of things and anything could happen to him. 

He was lucky, he survived.

I mourn for the fallen and pray for their families and our country that we can get over the bigotry that has bubbled to the top and is boiling over, lit by loud angry shouts from podiums hidden by smirks and claims of support for those different from themselves.

"Outliers - We, all of us, have a tendency to label groups based on the attention grabbing outliers instead of the mainstream masses. In Dallas, the now deceased shooter said last night that he wanted to kill white police officers. This came on the heels of the deaths of two black men shot by white police officers. The Dallas snipers drew a straight line from those deaths to all white police officers. That logic is just as flawed as attributing the atrocities of any group of miscreants to an entire race, religion, nationality or ethnicity.

We, nor the outliers, can kill enough people to create peace. We can crush resistance for a short time but it will return bigger and bolder. The only answer is to stop treating the masses as the outliers. Treat everyone as an individual, not blind to obvious signs of danger nor prejudiced by outlier actions. This solution is less dramatic, creates less news content and may take years to achieve, but is the only way to a lasting peace.

This solution starts with you, the individual. You don’t need Congress to act nor for direction from your clergy. Just look at each person you see or meet as if they are part of the peaceful masses that share your hope for a better day tomorrow.

Please share this post with whatever comment you believe is appropriate."

Submitted by 

Linda Vola
Creative Muse  & 

Charlie Sharp Head Wrangler

Forever Young Farm

DWB - Driving While Black

Here's a facebook post from a good friend of mine, David Walker.

David is a professional photographer, writer, artist, husband, father, brother, son, grandson and friend. His skin happens to be darker than mine. I am afraid for him and for so many others like him.

     

Daddy David

Grandson David

People feel safer to express their hate and bigotry by their support of a small minded candidate who has stirred up these hidden feelings by his innuendos and outright and nastiness. He has created a safe zone for the smirks and hate expressed by those attracted to his entertainment quality.

Think about your own black friends. How would you you feel if any of them were pulled over for the offense of DWB (Driving While Black)?

"I could sum up my feelings with two words: fear and helplessness. I am fearful that my life could be taken based on a misunderstanding by those that are sworn to protect me. I only have one life. I feel helpless. I feel as if my life is in someone else's hands, and they may have preconceived ideas about how I will conduct myself.

The helplessness has a physical weight, man. It seems as if I am always trying to convince people that my concerns are legitimate and that a badge does not sanctify every action of a law enforcement officer. Many of these same individuals tell me that all lives matter. The Declaration of Independence affirms that "all men are created equal." "All" did not include me then, so why should I assume that it includes me now? Perhaps a person's value at birth does not determine how others treat them or their worth in life. I am a black man. Does my life matter? It seems to be a cumbersome phrase for many even to utter aloud. I am also a writer. Fortunately, I have the ability to articulate my thoughts and feelings. I feel sorry for those that cannot, but their pain in no less real.

I would say that the fear and helplessness comes from the realization that if ever in have a misunderstanding with a law enforcement officer and am shot, few will listen to me. Onlookers will only say, "I do not see the problem," or they may tell me that somehow, someway, this is all my fault.

I am tired. Unfriend me if you want".

David Walker

David Walker is an American lifestyle photographer, graphic designer, and essayist and Author of The Augustan: Short, thought-provoking commentary on culture, politics, and social issues.